Methodology white paperLast reviewed 24 June 2026 · Methodology v1.3
The indices it draws on
Exposure scores are calibrated against three published research bases, cross-checked against current UK labour-market data:
- IMF — Cazzaniga et al. (2024)Establishes that roughly 60% of jobs in advanced economies are exposed to AI in some form, and distinguishes exposure that substitutes labour from exposure that augments it. Forta uses this as the macro baseline.
- Felten / Raj / Seamans — AIOE index (2021)The AI Occupational Exposure index maps occupations to the AI capabilities most likely to affect them. Forta uses it to differentiate high-substitution from augmentation role families.
- Frey & Osborne (2017)The original computerisation-probability study. Used as a cross-check on the rules-based, document-intensive families where the AIOE and Frey/Osborne signals converge.
- UK labour-market dataONS Workforce Jobs, the Bank of England / FCA AI in UK Financial Services Survey 2024, CIPD, DfE, REC/APSCo and Lightcast ground the scores and pathways in current UK reality rather than projection alone.
The scoring logic, end to end
ExposureEvery role is mapped to one of fourteen role families and scored at family level against published AI-exposure indices, then headcount-weighted to a single workforce figure. The engine is deterministic and side-effect-free — the same input always yields the same output.
ConfidencePre-validation scores carry a Medium confidence band; the Validate phase narrows it against the client’s real task data. Higher declared task data tightens the band. Scores are presented as ranges, never false-precision point claims.
CostReplacement cost is modelled at 0.45–0.90× salary (mid 0.60×); transition is modelled with a 70% conversion assumption and 25% overhead. All figures are indicative ranges for planning, not guarantees.
RedeploymentDestinations are scored on skills adjacency to UK shortage sectors. Each pathway is a hypothesis for the Validate phase — confirmed against real, anonymous worker profiles before any decision is taken.
LimitationsFunding eligibility, redeployment fit and exposure ratings all require validation with the client. Nothing here is legal advice. The audit is readiness, not compliance.
The fourteen role families
Every workforce maps onto these families. Exposure is the family score against the indices above; the horizon is the window over which substitution pressure typically materialises.
| Role family | Type | Horizon | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clerical & Administrative | high substitution | 1-3 years | 84 |
| Customer Operations | high substitution | 1-3 years | 78 |
| Finance & Back Office | high substitution | 1-4 years | 72 |
| Paralegal & Legal Support | medium substitution | 2-4 years | 71 |
| Inside Sales & Telemarketing | medium substitution | 2-4 years | 68 |
| Junior Analysts (Generalist) | augmentation | 2-5 years | 64 |
| HR Operations | medium substitution | 2-5 years | 58 |
| Creative & Design | augmentation | 2-5 years | 52 |
| Logistics & Operations | medium substitution | 3-7 years | 48 |
| Middle Management | augmentation | 3-7 years | 42 |
| Senior Professional / Knowledge Worker | augmentation | 3-7 years | 38 |
| Technical & Skilled Trades | augmentation | 5-10 years | 28 |
| Frontline Service (Care, Hospitality) | low impact | 5-10 years | 22 |
| Executive & Senior Leadership | augmentation | 5-10 years | 18 |
Destination pathways
Redeployment destinations are scored on current UK demand and time-to-competence. Pathways on the UK Shortage Occupation List are flagged — these carry the most durable demand.
| Pathway | Median salary | Time to competent | Demand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Care Sector Coordinator (Senior Carer / Team Lead)Shortage | £28,000 | 10 weeks | 95 |
| Cyber Governance, Risk & Compliance AnalystShortage | £45,000 | 16 weeks | 92 |
| Data AnalystShortage | £42,000 | 18 weeks | 90 |
| Financial Crime / AML AnalystShortage | £42,000 | 14 weeks | 88 |
| Regulatory Compliance Analyst | £44,000 | 14 weeks | 85 |
| Business Analyst | £45,000 | 16 weeks | 84 |
| Data Protection Officer (Junior)Shortage | £48,000 | 18 weeks | 82 |
| Technical Support Engineer | £36,000 | 16 weeks | 80 |
| Product Analyst | £50,000 | 18 weeks | 78 |
| Transformation Lead / Change Manager | £65,000 | 20 weeks | 78 |
| Customer Success Manager | £44,000 | 12 weeks | 76 |
| Sales Engineering / Solutions | £55,000 | 20 weeks | 74 |
| Junior Product Manager | £58,000 | 26 weeks | 72 |
| Workforce Planning Analyst | £42,000 | 14 weeks | 70 |
| People Operations Specialist | £38,000 | 12 weeks | 68 |
Sources
·IMF Cazzaniga et al. (2024) — Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
·Felten, Raj & Seamans (2021) — AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE) index
·Frey & Osborne (2017) — The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?
·ONS Workforce Jobs (JOBS02) — financial and insurance activities -3.6% Sep 2024 to Sep 2025
·Bank of England / FCA AI in UK Financial Services Survey 2024
·CIPD Labour Market Outlook — 1-in-6 employers expecting shrinkage Q4 2025
·DfE Unit for Future Skills — UK Shortage Occupation Index
·REC & APSCo Q4 2025 UK Labour-Market Reports
·Lightcast Occupation Demand Index
·Treasury Select Committee AI in Financial Services (January 2026)
·Morgan Stanley — UK AI workforce net job loss data 2025
·EU Regulation 2024/1689 (EU AI Act) — cited for regulatory context only; governs AI that manages workers, not this audit